This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook. 

Highlights of the week: Fed & BoE & BoJ interest rate decisions, EU GDP & flash inflation, US PCE index, Chinese manufacturing PMI

Wednesday

  • Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: Scheduled for 18:00 GMT, the Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to maintain the current interest rate at 3.75%, with the probability of a rate increase estimated at approximately 32%. Market participants will closely analyze the subsequent press conference for insights regarding the future trajectory of monetary policy.

Thursday

  • Flash European GDP Growth: To be released at 09:00 AM GMT, the annualized gross domestic product for the second quarter is projected to increase marginally from 0.3% to 0.4%. Confirmation of this figure may provide short-term support for the Euro against its counterparts. Conversely, any significant deviation from expectations may induce volatility in Euro pairs at the time of publication.
  • Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: The central bank is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision at 11:00 AM GMT. The consensus expectation is for the rate to remain stable at 3.75%. An unexpected rate increase could strengthen the British pound, particularly against the US dollar, whereas an improbable rate reduction would likely exert downward pressure on the currency.
  • Preliminary German Inflation Rate: Anticipated at 12:00 PM GMT, the market consensus for July indicates a 0.4% monthly increase, bringing the annualized rate to 2.7%. Verification of this forecast would likely have implications for the broader European inflation data scheduled for release the following day.
  • US Core PCE Index: Scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which measures consumer price changes excluding food and energy, is projected to decline by 0.1% for June. As this index is a critical metric for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, a decelerating trend could foster a more dovish policy stance at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
  • US GDP Growth Advance Data: The advance gross domestic product data for the second quarter of 2026, expected at 12:30 PM GMT, is forecast to remain unchanged at 2.1%. Any discrepancy between the actual and projected figures is anticipated to generate volatility across US dollar pairs.

Friday

  • NBS Manufacturing PMI: Scheduled for release at 01:30 AM GMT, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) manufacturing PMI is anticipated to register a marginal decline to 50 points. The NBS survey, which encompasses a larger sample size than the Caixin index, primarily focuses on major state-owned enterprises. Should the actual figure align with expectations and remain above the 50-point threshold, it would indicate continued expansion within the state-owned manufacturing sector. Consequently, this outcome may influence the valuation of production-related commodities, including crude oil, natural gas, and silver.
  • Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision: The Bank of Japan is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision at 03:00 AM GMT. The prevailing market consensus suggests that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged at 1%. In the unlikely event of an unexpected policy adjustment, significant volatility is anticipated across Japanese Yen currency pairs.
  • Flash European Inflation Rate: The preliminary European inflation data for July will be released at 09:00 AM GMT. The annualized inflation rate is projected to rise to 2.9%, up from the previous reading of 2.8%. An outcome matching or exceeding this forecast could provide short-term support to the Euro against major counterparts, as it may prompt a more hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) during its subsequent press conference.

USOIL, daily

Oil prices fell after the US paused nearly two weeks of strikes against Iran, easing immediate concerns over further escalation despite continued threats to regional energy infrastructure. The pause in military action and renewed diplomatic talks over the Strait of Hormuz improved expectations for a potential de-escalation, although any ceasefire could be temporary. Shipping activity through key maritime chokepoints remained limited, highlighting ongoing supply risks as vessel operators stayed cautious. While crude prices have risen sharply this month due to fears of disrupted exports, uncertainty over the conflict continues to keep the market volatile.

From a technical perspective, crude oil remains in a medium-term recovery despite a sharp pullback from recent highs. Price continues to trade above the 50-day SMA, showing that the short-term bullish momentum remains intact, although it is still below the 100-day SMA, keeping the broader trend cautiously bearish. The recent rejection near the upper Bollinger Band suggests buying momentum has weakened, while the Stochastic oscillator has turned lower from overbought territory, indicating that the market may see further consolidation or a short-term correction. The 50-day SMA around $80 now serves as the first key support, while a move back above $91 would strengthen the bullish outlook and expose the 100-day SMA near $87. Overall, the medium-term recovery remains intact, but easing momentum suggests traders may see a period of consolidation before the next directional move.

Gold-dollar, daily

Gold climbed after the US paused its military campaign against Iran, easing concerns over oil supply disruptions and reducing inflation fears. The move supported bullion as lower energy prices eased expectations of further interest rate hikes. However, gold remains range-bound around the $4,000–$4,200 level, while a lasting resolution to the US-Iran conflict is needed for a stronger breakout. Markets are also awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this week, with elevated inflation expectations and higher bond yields continuing to limit gains in the non-yielding metal.

From a technical point of view, gold remains in a broader downtrend, with the price trading below both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, reinforcing the bearish market structure. However, the metal has stabilised above the psychological $4,000 level and is attempting to build short-term momentum. The Stochastic oscillator is rising and has moved above the midpoint, suggesting improving bullish momentum that could support further gains. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands have started to narrow, indicating that volatility is easing following the recent selloff. The first key resistance is located at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around $4,320, with stronger resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci level near $4,530. Overall, the longer-term outlook remains bearish, but sustained buying above $4,000 could support a continued recovery toward the next resistance levels.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness.